Good early Monday morning, everyone. Despite another day with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers for some, we managed to wrap up the weekend on a warm note across much of the area. After we saw highs in the upper 70s yesterday at Joplin Regional Airport, we saw highs climb into the lower 80s after lows started in the middle 60s. Outside of Joplin, areas northwest of the city saw highs in the middle to upper 70s. Areas south and east of Joplin saw upper 70s and lower 80s for highs Sunday afternoon.
After a warm end to our weekend, let’s break down the weather setup to see where we go from here. At the surface, high pressure centered over Tennessee is keeping our southerly breeze in place as we head into our Monday. Off to the west, our next frontal system fired off additional strong to severe t-storms across parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. While those t-storms won’t come at us today, the system itself will start to play a role in our forecast very soon.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, our upper-level ridge is still doing its part to keep us warm and holding the next frontal system at bay. The upper-level low over Montana and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will start to push the front our way as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Until then, the stubborn upper-level wave south of Houston will keep sending moisture our way for today.
That moisture will keep mostly cloudy skies in place through the overnight hours. Everyone will be dry to start the morning out as temperatures drop into the middle 60s.
While the morning starts dry, additional moisture on the way in should bring in the chance for scattered showers as we hit the late morning and head into lunchtime. We should still be able to warm up with temperatures in the middle 70s by the noon hour.
For the afternoon, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies with a chance for scattered t-storms for parts of the area. Even with these t-storm chances in place, these storms shouldn’t be strong and we aren’t expecting anything to turn severe. We’ll have another warm afternoon with highs topping out around 80° across the area.
While the chance for a few showers and t-storm will be in place to start this evening out, we’re looking at mainly a dry night before additional t-storm chances develop and work in by the start of our Tuesday AM drive. With that and mostly cloudy skies in the forecast for Tuesday morning, that will bring temperatures back down into the middle 60s across the area.
With the frontal system working through western Kansas and the upper-level ridge moving on, additional upper-level lift and energy will result in a better shot for more scattered t-storms for our Tuesday. While this setup could lead to some strong t-storms for Tuesday, the severe threat is looking pretty low for us. Even with the t-storm chances sticking with us, we’ll stay warm with highs in the upper 70s for most spots and a few 80° readings for our southern areas.
For Wednesday, the frontal system is still in play as it works closer to the area. Couple that with an upper-level low working across the Northern Rockies and sending upper-level energy along the jet stream, we’ll continue with scattered t-storm chances that could be strong to severe as highs stay warm in the lower 80s.
With this setup sticking with us for Thursday and Friday, we’ll hold on to scattered t-storm chances for both of those days with a chance for strong to severe t-storms each day. With the jet stream just to our north for Thursday, that should be the warmest day of the week with highs topping out in the middle 80s. By Friday, the shifting jet and mostly cloudy skies will bring temperatures down a little bit. It will still be warm as we kick off the Memorial Day Weekend with highs topping out in the upper 70s.
While the jet stream may flip-flop across the area, waves riding along the jet will keep t-storm chances in place for Saturday and Sunday. Despite that, we’ll stay on the warm side for both days as highs will top out in the middle to upper 70s.
To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Monday!
May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat. Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday. Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.
June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat returns for Saturday.
June 13th-19th: A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.