Good early Sunday morning, everyone. With yesterday being an important day for a good number of you, it was good that Mother Nature only brought rain chances our way and kept any t-storm chances out of the picture. Our morning batch of rain left a good portion of the area with half an inch of rain or less before we finally saw some breaks in the clouds by Saturday afternoon. After we had temperatures drop into the upper 60s by sunrise, the rain from this morning actually caused temperatures to drop a little more into the middle 60s by 10 AM. Once the rain cleared out and we saw the afternoon sun, that helped temperatures climb to 76° at Joplin Regional by the start of the evening. However, a deeper dive into the number showed the thermometer push into the upper 70s before we hit sunset.
After a warm end to our Saturday, let’s break down the weather setup to see where we go from here. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Kentucky/Tennessee state line is keeping a south wind in place as we wrap up our weekend. That’s holding strong and keeping our next front off to our north and west. That kept any strong to severe t-storms out across parts of Nebraska, Colorado and New Mexico throughout our Saturday. Although this stays away for Sunday, it will come into play as we work into the upcoming week.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, our upper-level ridge is also helping keep our next cold front at bay for a few more days. While it will also keep us warm, the stubborn upper-level low south of Houston keeps wanting to bring more moisture our way as it rides around the ridge.
That moisture will keep mostly cloudy skies in place through the overnight hours. While I can’t rule out a random shower or a few areas of sprinkles, most spots will be dry as temperatures keep dropping into the middle 60s.
By sunrise, we’ll still have a chance for a few scattered showers. Otherwise, we’ll all have a mild start as lows drop back near 64° across the area.
With partly sunny skies expected for today, that and the south wind at 5-10 mph should be able to send afternoon highs back into the upper 70s across much of the region. While it will be another warm day, we’ll still hold on to a chance for scattered t-storms across parts of the area. Like yesterday, we aren’t expecting anything strong or severe.
After a chance for scattered t-storms early in the evening, we’ll dry out overnight and head into a mild Monday morning under partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows back in the middle 60s.
While we can’t rule out a few isolated t-storms on Monday, we’ll have partly sunny skies in charge and ready to send highs back near 80° across the area as a new work week gets underway.
While the upper-level ridge will keep rain chances fairly low for today and Monday, it will move on as we get into Tuesday. Once the ridge moves on, the upper-level low out in the Rockies and more waves developing out west will be ready to send the cold front our way. That will result in an increase in t-storm chances and, sticking with Doug’s pattern, a return to an active stretch of weather. We’ll keep an eye on the t-storm chances on Tuesday as some could be strong to possibly severe.
We’ll back things down to scattered t-storms on Wednesday as highs stay warm in the lower 80s. By Thursday, another wave riding along the jet stream will interact with the front and keep t-storm chances around. Some of the t-storms on Thursday could be strong to severe. Even with that in the forecast, we’ll stay warm with highs on Thursday pushing into the middle 80s.
As the waves keep on coming as we start our Memorial Day Weekend, we’ll keep warm as additional t-storm chances stick with us for Friday and Saturday. With severe weather chances possible to start the holiday weekend, we’ll keep an eye on those t-storm chances as we continue throughout the week.
To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Sunday!
Nick
May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat. Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday. Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.
June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat returns for Saturday.
June 13th-19th: A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.