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Latest updated blog – Rain chances for our mild Saturday – Nick

Good early Saturday morning, everyone. Leave it to Mother Nature to have the final say on how our weekend gets started. Ever since we saw our rain chances pick up last Friday, this has been the prevailing weather setup through last weekend and much of this week. Since the rain chances and mostly cloudy skies were in control again today, our temperatures fared similarly to how we did on Thursday. After we saw lows start out in the upper 60s, highs were only able to climb into the lower to middle 70s across the area for Friday afternoon.

While the periods of rain we saw today for areas along and east of US 69 stayed under half an inch, we have seen quite a bit of rain this week. Since Sunday, we have averaged out at 1.8″ of rain. Needless to say, some spots didn’t see quite as much while others saw rain amounts push over 2 or 3 inches.

We continue to keep an eye on our weather setup as we proceed through the weekend. At the surface, it doesn’t look like much is going on here. High pressure over Washington D.C. will continue to keep our wind out of the southeast and south as we work through the rest of the weekend. Our next frontal system stretches from eastern Canada through the Northern Plains and into the western parts of the country. Fortunately, that front won’t come into the forecast until we get into the middle of next week.

We have to head upstairs to see what’s driving our weather setup. At the jet stream level, an upper-level ridge is trying to build in from the east as our stubborn upper-level low is fizzling out as it works over the U.S./Canada border. However, note a separate upper-level low south of Houston in the western Gulf of Mexico. The counter-clockwise flow is continuing to bring moisture from the Gulf and keep cloud cover and rain chances in the forecast for today.

Let’s break down how today will unfold. While a random shower or two will be possible before sunrise, we’re expecting additional rain to develop along and south of I-44 between 5 and 7 AM. This are rain chances that will be around as the Joplin Memorial Run gets underway. Other areas will have a mostly cloudy start to the day as lows slowly drop back into the upper 60s.

Going through the rest of the morning, the area of rain will expand in coverage and could develop into light to moderate rain. While we have a little instability in place to allow for a few possible heavy downpours and a random rumble of thunder, this is not a setup for strong t-storms and certainly not a setup for severe weather. Nonetheless, rain chances will continue under mostly cloudy skies through the middle of the morning as mostly cloudy skies keep temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.

Fortunately, the bulk of these rain chances won’t stick around all day long. By the noon hour, the band of rain will lift north and away from areas along and south of I-44. As the rain chances shift into our northern and western counties by the noon hour, mostly cloudy skies and a south breeze should start to allow temperatures to climb to 70° as the afternoon begins.

Through the afternoon, the rain chances will continue to lift northwest. We’ll even see those rain chances start to fall apart by the time we get into this early evening. Before we hit sunset, some breaks in the clouds should allow highs to climb into the lower to middle 70s across the area.

After some showers could try to stick around to start the evening out, we’re looking at mainly a dry night and quiet start to our Sunday morning. With mostly cloudy skies, we should see lows drop back into the middle 60s across the region.

While the upper-level ridge will leave most spots with a dry Sunday, some moisture along with a weak wave riding around the ridge could bring a few isolated t-storms for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll have warm temperatures back in play with highs around 80° across the area.

With the upper-level ridge largely in control for Monday, we’ll stay partly sunny and warm with highs around 80° once again. With some moisture in tow as well, we can’t rule out a random t-storm during the day.

By Tuesday, things start to get active again. With one upper-level low lifting into the northern Great Lakes and another low working out of the Pacific Northwest, both will push our next cold front closer to the area. While we’ll stay warm with highs around 80°, the front will work together with some upper-level energy to bring t-storm chances back into the area. We’ll keep an eye on Tuesday’s t-storm chances since they have a chance to turn strong to severe.

After a chance for some strong scattered t-storms on Wednesday with highs in the lower 80s, the upper-level setup by Thursday shows another low working across Nevada and Utah. This setup for Thursday and Friday as we head into the Memorial Day Weekend will work together with the same frontal system to keep t-storms in the forecast. Some of those could be strong to severe while highs stay warm in the lower to middle 80s.

To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Saturday!

Nick

Next Saturday: We’ll keep warm with highs in the 80s while we keep an eye on the chance for strong to severe t-storms.

May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat.  Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday.  Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry.  Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.

June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Severe threat returns for Saturday.

June 13th-19th:  A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

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