Good late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, everyone. As advertised, the return of mostly cloudy skies and rain chances have kept us a bit cooler compared to our highs around 80° on Tuesday. After we dropped into the middle 60s Wednesday morning, we had a high temperature of 76° at 11:08 AM at Joplin Regional Airport. After that, we spend the rest of the afternoon with temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
In terms of additional rain that the area picked up from late Tuesday night and through Wednesday, you can see the radar estimates showing 0.3″ on average across the area. However, a corridor of moderate to heavy rainfall set up along and west of US 59 in southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. That’s where rain amounts pushed between 1 and 4 inches.
Late Wednesday evening, law enforcement actually reported some flooding over some low water crossings and parts of US 54 over in Gas, KS. Couple that with some flooded roadways between Iola and Humboldt, the National Weather Service in Wichita has Allen county under a flood warning until 8 AM Thursday.
The overall weather setup continues to show some changes as we inch closer to the weekend. Our stubborn stationary front is finally falling apart to our west. That means the only front we have to keep an eye on over the next several days is the front stretching from Canada through the Northern Plains and into the Southwestern United States. Fortunately, that won’t come into play until the middle of next week.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, our stubborn upper-level low is slowly moving northeast through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Within the next few days, that low will quickly work to the northeast and fall apart while the upper-level ridge to our east will start to eat away at our rain chances.
While this upper-level low brought in the batch of rain and a few t-storms for our Wednesday, it will clear out and we’ll have a bit of a break in our rain chances overnight as we stay mostly cloudy.
While a random shower is possible by the time Thursday’s AM drive gets going, most spots should start dry as lows slowly drop back near 66°.
While most spots will be dry to start Thursday morning out, the departing upper-level low will pull in more moisture from the south. As it does, we’ll see returning scattered rain & t-storm chances late Thursday morning and into Thursday afternoon. While a good portion of the area will see highs back near 77° for Thursday afternoon, your numbers may vary if you encounter numerous rain chances throughout the day.
Once we deal with scattered rain and some t-storms for Thursday evening, we’ll temporarily dry out again as we head into Friday morning. However, skies will remain mostly cloudy as lows drop back to 67° across the area.
Once we get past another dry start for Friday morning, scattered rain and t-storms will pop back up once again across parts of the area. With those chances, it won’t be from the stubborn upper-level low. It will be from a subtle wave riding along the jet stream as the upper-level ridge starts to build in. With a drop in coverage of our rain chances and mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon, we’ll stay warm with highs in the upper 70s to around 80° across the area.
As for potential rain amounts over the next 2 days, they’ll vary between a quarter of an inch on the low end and 2 inches on the high end. Areas that see more of the rain chances between Thursday and Friday afternoon will see the higher amounts that could result in some additional minor flooding.
Looking to the weekend, Saturday is still looking okay for us. The building upper-level ridge keeps most of us quiet and warm while a few showers mainly skirt to our west as another upper-level low sends some energy right along the jet.
For us, we’ll start Saturday out on a mostly cloudy note with some isolated showers possible in the morning in our western counties. While a stray shower could still be possible by noon, we’re looking at mainly a dry afternoon under partly sunny skies. After we start in the middle 60s, we’ll have highs topping out around 81°.
Sunday is still looking okay as well. While a few showers can’t be ruled out, we’ll have partly sunny skies and highs staying warm right around 80°. Heading into a new work week, the upper-level ridge starts to shift to the east. The upper-level low riding along the Northern Plains will continue to push our next cold front our way. While the front stays to our northwest, the upper-level low could send just enough energy our way to spark a random t-storm for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, we’ll stay partly sunny and warm with highs around 80° once again.
Heading into Tuesday, the upper-level low will work across northern Minnesota. Despite that being well to our north, it will send a wave around the center and ride along the jet stream into our area. Combine that with the cold front approaching us, we’ll watch for scattered t-storms Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening. Since this lines up with Doug’s pattern, we’ll watch for the potential for strong to possibly severe t-storms. We’ll stay warm once again with highs around 80°.
The front will still be around for Wednesday with some additional upper-level energy to work with. We’ll hold on to some strong t-storm chances on Wednesday as highs top out in the upper 70s. To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!
May 27th-May 29th: Chances for thunderstorms will continue. We’ll watch for severe weather chances as the holiday weekend gets going. However, temperatures look great, mainly in the 80s.
May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat. Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday. Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.
June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat returns for Saturday.
June 13th-19th: A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.