Good early Tuesday morning, everyone. Even though we to start our Monday out with a good round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the morning hours and some isolated t-storms on the Missouri side during the afternoon, the dry time and pockets of sun we saw allowed temperatures to stay warm once again. After we saw highs in the upper 70s on Sunday, we saw Joplin Regional top out at 76° this afternoon. With a front across the region, our northwestern areas saw upper 60s and middle 70s for highs while our southern areas saw middle to upper 70s for Monday afternoon.
It was certainly good to see mild to warm temperatures across the area on Monday after we had a slow-moving round of rain and a few t-storms work through Sunday evening and into yesterday morning. When you take into account that round of rain with the isolated t-storms on the Missouri side for the afternoon and evening, the average comes to 0.8″ areawide. Needless to say, areas that saw moderate to heavy rainfall saw rain amounts between 1 and 3 inches.
Looking at our weather setup, our stubborn stationary front was parked across the area throughout our Monday and into last night. While it might fire off a random shower or t-storm early this morning, any strong to severe t-storms have stayed well to our southwest once again. Even though this front tried to push through the region, it will start to lift back to the north for today. That will make sure a southerly wind stays in place to help keep us warm for the rest of the week.
Meanwhile, the upper-level setup continues to stay busy. The disturbance that gave us Sunday night’s and Monday morning’s rain chances is lifting away. However, the main upper-level low is still spinning across the Desert Southwest. As long as that’s still in play, the rain chances keep on lining up.
For the very early morning hours, there could be a few random showers and a few t-storms south of the front as it starts lifting back to the north. The best chances for this will be along and south of I-44. Otherwise, you can see that we’ll hold on to partly to mostly cloudy skies with mild temperatures.
While I expect the AM drive to be dry, we’ll all start out with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the lower 60s to start this Tuesday out.
While the bulk of our Tuesday morning stays dry, another disturbance coming from the west will work in for the afternoon. That will allow for additional chances for scattered showers and t-storms to return. With the dry time and the southerly wind that we’ll see, we will see highs push back into the middle to upper 70s across the area.
After some scattered showers and t-storms for this evening, we’ll get another chance to briefly dry out for Wednesday morning as lows drop back into the middle 60s. We’ll stay warm once again for Wednesday as highs will return to the middle to upper 70s across the area. However, another wave will lead to additional scattered showers and t-storms for Wednesday.
With these rain chances over the next 2 days, we could easily see additional rain amounts range between a quarter of an inch to as much as 2 inches across the area. If heavier pockets of rain can materialize once again, you can see how the Rain Tracker below wants to suggest how some spots could see over 2 inches of rain.
Beyond Wednesday, this stubborn upper-level low will finally get the hint and start to move on. Note how a building upper-level ridge across the southeast starts to come into play by Thursday. While this will push our upper-level low to the north, it will still have some lift and moisture to work with and keep scattered showers and t-storms in the forecast. Despite that, we’ll stay warm with highs in the upper 70s.
Once the upper-level ridge starts coming into play, it will keep us warm for the weekend and into next Monday with highs in the lower 80s. Once we deal with mostly cloudy skies and scattered t-storms for Friday, we’ll see partly sunny skies return for Saturday. While Saturday starts dry, another wave out west will try to send some energy our way and spark some scattered t-storms for the afternoon. While those chances are still possible, we don’t see any severe weather threats with our t-storm chances on Saturday.
Aside from a few random t-storms on Sunday, we’ll end the weekend on a calmer note and keep things dry for Monday as the upper-level ridge tries to keep control. While this will be a nice break in our rain chances as we stay warm, we still expect the ridge to slide off to the east and allow for more t-storm chances and some severe weather to return by the middle of next week.
To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
May 25rd-May 29th: Chances for thunderstorms almost everyday. We’ll watch for a low severe threat on Wednesday before it ramps up for the holiday weekend. However, temperatures look great, mainly in the 80s.
May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat. Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday. Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.
June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat returns for Saturday.
June 13th-19th: A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.