Good early Monday morning, everyone. Another May weekend has come to a close. While we had to start out with scattered rain and t-storms in the morning, we managed to see some sunshine warm us up for the afternoon. That was a good change of pace to see when you consider how we’ve had a number of days as of late with our highs below normal. After we saw highs in the middle 60s on Saturday, we had temperatures top out at 78° during the afternoon at Joplin Regional. That’s just above our average high of 77° for this part of May.
While it was nice that the dry time most of us saw during the afternoon allowed us to warm up, we’re dealing with scattered rain and a few t-storms early this morning as our Monday gets going. That’s due to our overall weather setup staying about the same since Saturday and yesterday. While we’re on the warm side of the stationary front, we still have the front draped just to our north. Fortunately, any strong to severe t-storms are staying well to our west and southwest across Texas once again.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level low out over Las Vegas is still in charge. While it’s a good distance to our west, it’s pushing another wave through the region to start the day out. That’s why we’re seeing areas of rain and a few t-storms this morning.
As long as it’s still pushing through, plan on having the rain gear handy before you head out to work or school this morning. At least we’ll be off to a mild start with most areas sitting around 63° by sunrise.
While we do have the chance for scattered rain and t-storms for areas east of US 59 this morning, we’ll actually see some dry time once again as we get into the afternoon. Granted, I won’t rule out a few showers or a random t-storms during the afternoon as this current upper-level wave works on out of here. However, we should warm up again with some dry time and peaks of the sun during the afternoon. At the very least, we’ll have highs around 75° this afternoon. If we clear the rain chances out early and see some sun returning sooner than expected, we could nudge the highs into the upper 70s for today.
Once we get past a dry evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows dropping back into the lower 60s, we’ll have another upper-level wave come at us from the west and bring rain and t-storm chances for a good portion of the area back in for Tuesday. Even with the rain chances, we’ll stay warm with highs in the middle to upper 70s.
In terms of rainfall for the next 2 days, some spots could see quite a bit add up. From this morning’s rain chances and the returning rain for Tuesday, rain amounts will easily range between half an inch and 2 inches across the area. Your amounts will vary depending on if you get in on some moderate to heavy rainfall.
Beyond Tuesday, the rain and t-storm chances will just keep coming. The main upper-level low keeping us busy today will work into western Kansas on Wednesday. Despite this setup keeping scattered t-storms in the forecast, we should see partly sunny skies warm us up into the middle 70s once again.
Before that low lifts into the Northern Plains and dissipated on Thursday, it will keep us mostly cloudy with scattered t-storms still in the forecast. Even with that in play, we’ll stay warm once again with highs topping out in the upper 70s. Look at the upper-level setup by Friday, though.
The building upper-level ridge will have a role in our forecast as we head into the upcoming weekend. Even with mostly cloudy skies as the next upper-level low sends some energy our way to keep scattered t-storms in the forecast, the upper-level ridge will start to push highs around 80° for Friday afternoon.
This setup will stay in place as we head through Saturday and the following Sunday. Even though we’ll be warm this weekend, we’ll still have scattered t-storms for parts of the area. Given the overall look, Doug and I aren’t really worried about a severe threat for much of the week. That being said, all these rain chances could lead to possible area flooding that we’ll need to keep an eye on as we proceed through the week. Once we get into next Sunday and early next week, that’s when we’ll have to keep an eye out for increasing severe weather chances. To see how we look to wrap up May and how June is looking, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
May 24rd-May 29th: Chances for thunderstorms almost everyday. I think Wednesday and Thursday look pretty good, but chances Sunday through Tuesday with at least a low threat. Severe threat returns as we head into the holiday weekend. However, temperatures look great, mainly in the 80s.
May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat. Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday. Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry. Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.
June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat returns for Saturday.
June 13th-19th: A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.