Latest updated blog – Plenty of t-storm chances lined up – Nick

Good early Sunday morning, everyone. Hopefully, you all had a good Saturday. Even though we saw temperatures a bit cooler compared to the lower 70s we saw at Joplin Regional on Friday, we did stay mild across much of the area. While Joplin Regional started out in the middle 50s and topped out at 66° Saturday afternoon, most of southwest Missouri saw highs in the lower to middle 60s while everyone on the Kansas and Oklahoma side saw highs push into the upper 60s and lower 70s for the afternoon.

We certainly made the most of the few peaks of sun we had working through our mostly cloudy skies for much of the day. It was deserved after we saw overnight and early morning rain and t-storms work in from the west. That batch of rain and t-storms brought half an inch of rain on average across the area. Looking at the rain amounts below, it’s easy to see that some areas saw more than half an inch where the moderate to heavier pockets of rain worked through.

Looking at our surface setup, we have a warm front working to the north across the area. That has been the focal point for some scattered t-storms to start the overnight hours out with a couple bringing some heavy rain and small hail to some spots. The better chances for strong to severe t-storms has stayed well to the west across southwest Kansas and through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as that storm system continues westward.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, we do have the jet itself trying to lift back north of the region to help continue our warming trend. While it will ultimately lift to our north through time, the jet will serve as a corridor for additional waves from the upper-level low out west to head our way and keep rain/t-storm chances in the forecast.

The scattered t-storms we’re seeing along the advancing warm front will continue to lift north through the overnight. Those t-storms will be mainly capable of heavy rainfall and some small hail. While those will be gone by sunrise, we’ll have an additional batch of t-storms work in from central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Everyone else will start with mostly cloudy skies and lows around 60°.

That batch of t-storms will generally lift northeast and impact parts of southeast Kansas and areas from Nevada north into Missouri through the rest of the morning. These t-storms should behave and stay below severe levels as they move on through. Even with the scattered t-storms and mostly cloudy skies, peaks of the sun and a returning southerly wind will start to help temperatures out.

While we’ll start the afternoon out with mainly dry conditions, another upper-level impulse will allow for additional scattered t-storms to develop late in the afternoon. Like Saturday’s t-storms, these could be strong but should stay below severe levels. After we start the afternoon out with temperatures in the lower 70s, a good number of us will top out in the middle 70s for the afternoon.

Our scattered t-storm chances will continue into Sunday evening and into our Monday morning while we continue with mostly cloudy skies. We’ll keep things a bit mild with lows dropping back into the lower 60s.

With another upper-level impulse on the way for Monday, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and a chance for scattered t-storms that will stay below severe limits. It’ll be quite mild for Monday afternoon with highs back in the middle 70s across the region.

Just for the next 2 days alone, parts of the region could see quite a bit of rainfall. While some areas on the low end of the Rain Tracker could see as little as a quarter to half an inch, areas that see more in the way of rainfall could range between an inch and 2 inches by the time we get into Monday afternoon.

The stubborn upper-level low will continue to drive our weather as we work through the middle of the week. The setup for Tuesday below shows the low working across the Colorado/New Mexico border. It will continue to send energy our way and keep scattered t-storms in for Tuesday as highs top out in the middle 70s. Like today’s and Monday’s t-storm chances, we could see some strong t-storms for Tuesday. Fortunately, the severe threat continues to stay quite low across the area.

By Thursday, the upper-level low lifts into the Northern Plains before it fizzles away by Friday. Despite that change and highs wanting to push into the upper 70s, this will still keep scattered t-storms in the forecast. For now, this particular setup for Thursday keeps the severe threat fairly low. Still, it’s something we’ll continue to watch as we proceed through the week.

By next weekend, another upper-level low will emerge into the central and northern Rockies. That, along with another advancing frontal system, will set the stage for continued t-storm chances for Friday and Saturday. Even though this setup could bring strong to severe t-storms our way for this coming Friday and Saturday, plenty could change between now and then.

For a look at how the rest of May and much of June will play out, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!


May 23rd-May 29th: A repeat week.  Chances for thunderstorms almost everyday.  I think Wednesday and Thursday look pretty good, but chances Sunday through Tuesday with at least a low threat.  Severe threat returns as we head into the holiday weekend.  However, temperatures look great, mainly in the 80s.

May 30th-June 5th: A stormy holiday with a severe threat.  Warm with thunderstorm sticking around on Tuesday.  Cooling down a bit for the middle of the week and dry.  Warming up late in the week with thunderstorm chances once again.

June 6th-June 12th: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Severe threat returns for Saturday.

June 13th-19th:  A warm week with thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

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