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Latest updated blog – Departing rain chances Tuesday – Nick

Good late Monday evening, everyone. Much of the area stayed fairly quiet today as temperatures stayed a bit on the warm side under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. After seeing upper 70s yesterday to wrap up our weekend, we dropped back into the lower 60s this morning before we went back into the upper 70s this afternoon.

Looking at our weather setup, our cold front didn’t waste any time working through the area today. As the front rolled through, the northerly wind brought in a slightly more stable air mass. That allowed the vast majority of the area to stay quiet under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies while any severe weather managed to stay just to our south.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, we have the upper-level low with this storm system digging into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. This upper-level low is interacting with the more favorable environment south of the cold front and producing severe t-storms across northern Texas, eastern/southeastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas. While we just dodged a severe threat, this setup will still bring rain and t-storms in here as we work into the overnight.

With our overnight batch of rain and t-storms, you can see them overtaking a good portion of the area once we hit midnight and go beyond that for our early Tuesday morning. The rain and the mostly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to continue to drop into the lower to middle 60s by midnight.

As our t-storm chances pick up, any severe threat will stay to our south and east. That being said, we can’t rule out some of our strongest t-storms to potentially bring some small hail and wind gusts our way. Aside from that, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be mostly likely what we’ll see out of this overnight batch of t-storms. While we’ll catch a bit of a break by the start of your Tuesday AM drive, we’ll have the backside of the system start to bring in additional rain chances in from the west. Plan on grabbing the umbrellas and the jackets as you head out the door as temperatures will be dropping back into the middle 50s.

While we usually see our coolest temperatures of the day during the morning hours, the backside of this storm system will continue to drop temperatures through the rest of the morning as we continue with scattered rain as well. By noon, we’ll be in the lower 50s as the rain chances will start to move off to the east.

Fortunately, the cloud cover and rain chances won’t have a solid grip over the area for the entire day. The rain chances will clear out as we work through the afternoon and we’ll also see some returning sunshine. Even with a north wind in place, we expect the returning sunshine to be enough to have daytime highs topping out around 60°.

With this system, a good number of us will pick up half an inch to an inch of rainfall. With some of the heavier pockets, however, we could see an inch and a quarter to an inch and a half of rain in a few spots.

With mostly clear skies for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, that will allow lows to drop into the lower 40s across the region. Thankfully, a returning southeast breeze under partly sunny skies will allow highs to climb back into the middle 60s across the area. While we stay dry for Wednesday, look at the upper-level setup for Wednesday evening.

This will be a quick wave that will bring in scattered rain chances for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Once that wave clears out, we’ll turn partly sunny for Thursday afternoon with highs in the middle 60s. While we head back into the lower to middle 70s on Friday, we’ll watch for a few isolated t-storms during the afternoon as our weekend gets started. Once we get into Saturday, that’s when another wave out in the central and northern Rockies will send another system our way. As we climb into the lower 80s on Saturday, we’ll watch for scattered t-storms for Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening. Some of those could be strong to severe.

For Mother’s Day, we’ll stay warm with highs in the middle to upper 70s. However, the same storm system will also keep scattered t-storms in the forecast with some of those turning strong to severe.

Even as we drop into the middle 60s for a mild Monday, we’ll hold on to some scattered t-storms that could be strong to severe. If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of May and much of June, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

 

May 11th-May 15th:  Once we get past a severe threat with Tuesday’s t-storm chances, we’ll deal with some showers on Wednesday before another severe threat returns on Friday. Mild temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday before we warm back up for the weekend.

May 16th-May 22nd: We’ll we warm for Sunday through Tuesday before mild temperatures take hold for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday before we deal with a slight chance for rain on Wednesday. Another severe threat returns on Thursday. After some scattered t-storms on Friday, we’ll enjoy a quiet Saturday.

May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll stay warm for Sunday and Monday. After a mild stretch Tuesday through Thursday, we’ll warm up again in time for the weekend. We’ll be keeping an eye on a severe threat for Sunday and Monday before we back down to scattered t-storms on Tuesday and showers for Wednesday. After a quiet Thursday, we’ll watch for another severe threat on Friday and scattered t-storms on Saturday.

May 30th-June 5th: Warm temperatures will be around from Sunday through Tuesday before we turn mild for the middle of the week. We’re looking at a warm Friday before we turn mild again on Saturday. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday, Memorial Day and Tuesday. Once we get past a dry Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll watch for t-storms on Friday and rain chances on Saturday.

June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.

June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.

June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

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