Good Saturday evening, everyone. Even with an increase in our cloud cover today, we saw temperatures stay warm across the region on our first Saturday of the month of May and the first day of May. While we didn’t quite match our highs around 80° from Friday afternoon, we did rebound into the middle to upper 70s across the area after we started in the lower to middle 50s this morning.
While the cloud cover did increase today, we managed to stay dry across the area. However, our weather setup will start getting active once again as we work into a new week. Starting with our surface setup, we do note a frontal system across central and southern Texas that helped spawn scattered rain and t-storms along the Gulf Coast today. That system will stay to our south. The frontal system we’re watching closely is a cold front draped across the Northern Plains and into the Rockies. That won’t come into the forecast until we get into Monday.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, the upper-level low centered over Texas is the same upper-level low that helped bring rain and t-storms in here during the middle of the week. With it catching back up to the main flow of the jet stream as it lifts to the northeast, that will come back into play and bring scattered t-storms back into the forecast for our Sunday. Once we get this system out of the way, the upper low in the Pacific Northwest will work with our cold front to the northwest and bring a possible severe threat our way on Monday.
For the rest of the night and into Sunday morning, there’s a very slim chance that a stray shower or two along the I-40 corridor near Fort Smith could sneak into a few of our far southern counties before sunrise. Otherwise, the vast majority of the area will stay dry under mostly cloudy skies and a south breeze at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20 mph). That will keep temperatures mild to start Sunday morning out as lows only drop into the lower 60s.
While the morning starts dry, additional moisture with the upper-level low from the south will continue to work in. Between 10 AM and noon on Sunday, we’ll see that additional moisture result in developing scattered showers and t-storms underneath our continuing mostly cloudy skies. Even with those changes to the forecast, we’ll have temperatures around 70° to start Sunday afternoon out.
The scattered t-storms that develop along and east of US 59 won’t be all-day rain chances and won’t be severe. However, the scattered t-storm chances will be around for the afternoon as we continue with mostly cloudy skies and a southerly breeze at 5-15 mph (some gusts near 20 mph). This will mean a mild afternoon with Joplin topping out around 74° with outlying areas in the lower to middle 70s for highs.
Fortunately, this wave will be moving on as we work through our Sunday evening. That means even though we’ll start the evening out with some scattered t-storms, we’ll have dry conditions take us from late Sunday night and into Monday morning under partly cloudy skies. We’ll have another mild night and start to our Monday as lows drop back into the lower 60s.
While much of the area will have a warm Monday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, that will be a warm day ahead of the approaching cold front from the northwest. After a quiet start to the day, we’ll have partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies work in along and ahead of the cold front. Along the front, moisture and the upper-level wave accompanying the front will want to allow t-storms to develop along the front. We’ll have to keep an eye on those as the Monday evening commute gets underway.
Even with the front working through, we won’t see our t-storm chances with this system end after Monday evening. The upper-level low will want to bring in additional energy and lift to allow for clusters of t-storms to work through parts of the area as we work into Monday night.
This is a setup we’ll have to keep an eye on as we could see clusters of t-storms develop to our west and work in as we head into Tuesday morning.
With the next cold front and upper-level low on the way for Monday, this will be a possible severe threat for parts of the area. A low risk has been outlined for areas along a line from Nevada, Girard, Parsons and Bartlesville to the east and southeast. The timing for any strong to severe t-storms will be between 5 PM on Monday and 3 AM on Tuesday. While the tornado threat stays fairly low, the t-storms for late Monday and early Tuesday will be mainly capable of large hail, high wind gusts and some heavy rainfall.
We’ll start chilly for Tuesday morning as lows drop back to 50°. While some rain chances will be around for Tuesday morning, we’ll dry out and turn partly sunny for Tuesday afternoon with highs in the lower 60s.
With a chance to dry out Tuesday afternoon, we’ll take it when you consider how much rainfall wants to work in with these next two systems. While Sunday’s rain chances shouldn’t result in rain amounts more than a quarter of an inch, the second system could bring rain totals between half an inch and 1.5″ on average across the area. If we see the heavy pockets of rain track across the area, those amounts could pan out and bring a chance for some flash flooding as we work through late Monday and Tuesday.
The jet stream setup for Wednesday keeps us on the milder side of the jet. However, we’ll enjoy a partly sunny and dry day with highs in the upper 60s. You can see, however, another wave wanting to ride along the jet stream and start sneaking in from the west late Wednesday afternoon and certainly for Wednesday evening. That wants to bring another chance for scattered showers our way for Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Once we get past that wave, we’ll stay quiet and mostly cloudy for Thursday as highs drop back into the lower to middle 60s.
Once we get into the start of the upcoming weekend, we’ll have another system ride in along the jet to keep scattered t-storms and mostly cloudy skies in the forecast. That will keep highs in the middle 60s for Friday and Saturday.
If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of May and much of June, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!
Nick
May 9th-May 15th: Next system in with a severe threat on Sunday, Monday and Wednesday. The rest of the week looks pretty nice until thunderstorms return on Saturday.
May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll go from warm temperatures Sunday & Monday to a mild stretch for the middle of the week and back to warm temperatures by the weekend. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday through Tuesday, showers on Wednesday and another chance for severe weather on Saturday the 29th.
May 30th-June 5th: We’ll bounce between mild and warm temperatures to start the week before a mild stretch kicks in for Wednesday and Thursday. We should be warm for Friday and mild for Saturday. T-storms are possible for Sunday, Tuesday and Friday followed by rain chances on Saturday.
June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.
June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.
June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.