Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Sure enough, we had cloud cover in control as periods of rain and t-storms worked over many parts of the area today. This certainly had an impact on our temperatures compared to yesterday. After seeing highs in the upper 70s Tuesday afternoon, we dropped back into the middle 60s this morning before we topped out in the lower 70s this afternoon. This verified with Joplin Regional Airport recording a high of 71 degrees this afternoon.
In terms of rainfall, some areas saw some rain while others saw quite an accumulation within a span of 2 days in total. While we had a thin band of 1 to 3 inches across a portion of southeast Kansas, many areas north of I-44 could only see rain totals between a quarter of an inch and an inch. Once you hop south of I-44, our southern counties saw so much rainfall ranging between 3 and 9 inches. That resulted in quite a bit of flash flooding for Benton, McDonald and Barry counties late this morning and into the afternoon.
We are going to see things improve as we go through the rest of the work/school week and into the start of our weekend. Starting at the surface, we have our cold front working through. That helped to allow more rain and t-storms to develop and roll in today while it helped spark some severe weather across central parts of Oklahoma down into Texas.
At the jet stream level, the upper-level low we’ve been watching continues to crawl across southern New Mexico and into western parts of Texas. As we head into Thursday, the jet stream starts to head back in our direction. As it does, however, the upper-level low gets cut off from the main flow of the jet stream. That means we’ll see any unpleasant weather stay to our south over the next couple days.
With our cold front on the move and the upper-level low starting to break away from the jet, we’ll see that result in improving weather here as soon as Thursday morning. Once we see the vast majority of our rain and t-storm chances come to an end overnight, we’ll start Thursday morning off on a mostly cloudy and chilly note with lows back in the upper 50s.
While the day starts off mostly cloudy, returning sunshine will be the rule of thumb for the rest of the day. Under partly sunny skies (even mostly sunny skies for some), it will look a lot nicer as we work into the afternoon. With a north breeze behind the front, we’ll see highs a little below normal for this time of the year. Still, we’ll start the afternoon with temperatures in the middle 60s before we top out around 70 for our highs.
For Friday, we’ll enjoy mostly sunny skies as the upper-level low continues to wander across western Texas and even close to the Mexican border. While the jet stream continues to head back our way, we’ll see that result in highs in the middle 70s across the area. That sounds pretty good as our weekend gets started.
While we enjoy a quiet Saturday with partly sunny skies and warm temperatures with highs back in the middle 70s, we’ll have to keep an eye on changes that want to roll back in starting on Sunday. While it will be warm with highs in the upper 70s, the upper-level low to our southwest will head back our way and allow our partly sunny skies to lead to scattered t-storms for Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. We’ll be watching those t-storms closely as some could be strong to severe.
While that system will move on as we work into Monday, it’ll stay active. With another upper-level wave working out of the Pacific Northwest and digging into the Rockies, that will allow for another chance for scattered t-storms that could be strong to severe. Even with those continued t-storm chances, we’ll stay warm for Monday with highs in the upper 70s across the region.
Behind Monday’s storm system, we’ll see temperatures drop back into mild territory with highs in the middle to upper 60s. While we’ll be expecting scattered t-storms for Tuesday and scattered showers for Wednesday, we’ll watch for the storm system slated to roll in for next Friday and Saturday. The system due in for May 7th and May 8th will not only bring t-storms back into the forecast, that system also wants to bring another severe threat our way. You can see the other systems and severe threats we’re keeping an eye on over the next 5 weeks down below.
If you’re curious about how we look for May and much of the month of June in terms of storm systems and temperatures, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!
Nick
May 6th-8th: We’ll warm back up for Thursday and Friday before a slight cool down on Saturday. We’ll watch for severe weather chances on Friday before we see just regular t-storms on Saturday.
May 9th-May 15th: We’ll stay mild for Sunday and Monday before a warm up kicks in for Tuesday and Wednesday. After a mild Thursday, we’ll be warm to start the weekend out. We’ll watch for t-storms on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. We’ll watch Wednesday the 12th and Saturday the 15th for severe weather chances.
May 16th-May 22nd: Except for a warm Tuesday, we’ll stay mainly mild for this week. We’ll watch for slight t-storm chances on Sunday, a severe threat for Tuesday the 18th, a severe threat for Thursday the 20th, a severe threat for Friday the 21st and additional t-storms on Saturday.
May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll go from warm temperatures Sunday & Monday to a mild stretch for the middle of the week and back to warm temperatures by the weekend. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday through Tuesday, showers on Wednesday and another chance for severe weather on Saturday the 29th.
May 30th-June 5th: We’ll bounce between mild and warm temperatures to start the week before a mild stretch kicks in for Wednesday and Thursday. We should be warm for Friday and mild for Saturday. T-storms are possible for Sunday, Tuesday and Friday followed by rain chances on Saturday.
June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.
June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.
June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.