Good Tuesday evening, everyone. On the heels of a partly sunny and warm Monday, we kept warm once again for today. However, it didn’t look quite as nice today with mostly cloudy skies. After we saw highs shoot into the middle 80s, we dropped back into the upper 60s this morning before we only climbed back into the upper 70s.
While most of the day was dry, we have seen some showers and a few t-storms work in late this afternoon and into this evening. With more rain on the way and potentially heavy rainfall on the way for some, we have flood watches for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas while flash flood watches are in effect for southwest Missouri along and south of I-44.
We’ve been waiting patiently for our next storm system to change things up. After sitting and trying to get its act together to our west for the past few days, we’re seeing both components finally moving on in. At the surface, our frontal boundary is finally working into western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry line out ahead of the front earlier this afternoon and evening helped spark severe t-storms in western Texas. While the dry line is gone, the front will continue to serve as a focal point for additional severe t-storms in southern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas for the rest of the night.
At the jet stream level, note the upper-level low sitting over southern Arizona. While it’s providing additional lift and energy to keep t-storms chances around, this low is not in sync with the surface system. If they were stacked closer together, this could’ve been a better shot for severe weather across the region. As it stands, this will keep the chances for rain and strong t-storms in for the next day and a half while any severe weather chances stay to our southwest.
Underneath continued cloudy skies tonight, we’ll see periods of rain and t-storms expand and roll in as lows only drop off into the middle 60s across much of the area. While any severe t-storms will stay mainly to our southwest, we can’t rule out a few strong t-storms and pockets of heavy rain to start our Wednesday morning out.
We’ll plan on cloudy skies sticking around through the rest of the day with continued periods of rain and t-storms across the region. The Future Track is continuing to support the idea that any good chances for heavy rainfall will primarily target our southern counties along the I-44 corridor. Even with some dry time in between the rain, we won’t warm up very much for the day. While we should push into the upper 60s by the noon hour, we’ll only top out in the lower 70s for the afternoon.
After some more batches of t-storms and moderate to heavy rainfall for Wednesday evening, we’ll back things down to some scattered showers as we work into Thursday morning. Behind the passing cold front, we will have to start our Thursday morning on a chilly note as lows should mainly drop back into the middle to upper 50s.
Once the morning chances for showers clear out, we’ll see skies go from mostly cloudy to partly sunny for Thursday afternoon. Even with the returning sunshine, it will be a little cooler with the northerly breeze behind the cold front. Still, we’ll have a mild Thursday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
We’ll look forward to seeing the skies clear out and dry on Thursday after this storm system wants to bring quite a bit of rainfall for a number of spots. While a few spots could see rain totals stay under an inch (depending on how the rain chances line up and work through), a good number of you could see rain amounts between 1 and 3 inches by the time we dry out Thursday morning. For areas under flood and flash flood watches, you could see isolated amounts top out at 3 or 4 inches.
Thankfully, we’ll have a nice, mild and dry start to our weekend. While we do find ourselves on the milder side of the jet for Friday keeping temperatures a bit below normal, the upper-level low that’s aiding in our current system’s t-storm and rain chances will break apart from the jet and keep any unsettled weather to our south. With this setup, we’ll stay partly sunny for Friday with highs topping out in the upper 60s.
While we’ll enjoy a quiet Saturday with partly sunny skies and highs back in the middle 70s, we’ll keep an eye on our next storm system that wants to sneak in early next week. While our current upper-level low will slide off to our southeast, another upper low coming out of the Northwest wants to help bring some isolated strong to severe t-storms back in for Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. While we’ll be keeping an eye on that, we’ll at least get to enjoy temperatures topping back out around 80 for Sunday afternoon.
This incoming upper-level low wants to stick around for Monday as well. With partly sunny skies and highs staying warm in the upper 70s, we can’t rule out another chance for scattered strong to severe t-storms for Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
While there’s a chance for some t-storms to stick around for Tuesday, we’ll keep that day dry for now under partly sunny skies. We’ll also stay warm for next Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s. If you’re curious about how we look for May and much of the month of June, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
May 5th-8th: We’ll warm back up for Wednesday through Friday before a slight cool down on Saturday. We’ll watch for severe weather chances on Friday before we see just regular t-storms on Saturday.
May 9th-May 15th: We’ll stay mild for Sunday and Monday before a warm up kicks in for Tuesday and Wednesday. After a mild Thursday, we’ll be warm to start the weekend out. We’ll watch for t-storms on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. We’ll watch Wednesday the 12th and Saturday the 15th for severe weather chances.
May 16th-May 22nd: Except for a warm Tuesday, we’ll stay mainly mild for this week. We’ll watch for slight t-storm chances on Sunday, a severe threat for Tuesday the 18th, a severe threat for Thursday the 20th, a severe threat for Friday the 21st and additional t-storms on Saturday.
May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll go from warm temperatures Sunday & Monday to a mild stretch for the middle of the week and back to warm temperatures by the weekend. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday through Tuesday, showers on Wednesday and another chance for severe weather on Saturday the 29th.
May 30th-June 5th: We’ll bounce between mild and warm temperatures to start the week before a mild stretch kicks in for Wednesday and Thursday. We should be warm for Friday and mild for Saturday. T-storms are possible for Sunday, Tuesday and Friday followed by rain chances on Saturday.
June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.
June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.
June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.