Good Monday evening, everyone. As advertised, we had quite a windy and warm start to our work/school week across the region. After we ended our weekend with highs in the middle to upper 70s yesterday, we went from a chilly start in the upper 50s to highs in the middle 80s in Joplin and across the area under partly sunny skies.
Even with partly sunny skies, we managed quite a warm up today (actually 5 degrees close to the record high of 90 that we hit in 1987 and 1990) with a strong south wind sustained between 15 and 25 mph and gusts pushing near 45 mph during the afternoon. Our south wind that we saw today and will remain in place for tonight and Tuesday is due to our next frontal system draped to our north and west. While we are watching a boundary across western Kansas and western Oklahoma that could help drive t-storm chances late tomorrow, we’re also keeping an eye on our cold front working across the Rockies.
Not only will those features at the surface come into play over the next few days, we have our next upper-level low digging across northern Nevada. With this feature planning on taking its time working across the Lower 48, this will provide numerous rain and t-storm chances over the next 3 days.
Even though we’re sticking with partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight and into Tuesday morning, we’ll stay dry and mild as lows only drop back into the middle 60s. Be mindful of that south wind. It’ll still be sustained between 20 and 30 mph through the overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Even with mostly cloudy skies sticking around for our Tuesday, we’ll manage to see temperatures warm up once again with that south wind at 15-25 mph. We’ll see highs topping out around 78 across the region for Tuesday afternoon. While we’ll stay dry for the bulk of the day, we won’t rule out the approaching cold front out west, the boundary out west and some upper-level energy allowing for an isolated t-storm or two to develop by late afternoon.
Although we’ll have the slight chance for a few t-storms late in the afternoon, the better chances for clusters of t-storms will kick into gear once we get into Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. You can see how the expected t-storms will develop to our west and southwest with the expectation that they’ll track northeast as they work into the region.
We’re expecting these clusters of t-storms to continue as we work into the overnight hours and into early Wednesday morning. By 3 AM, you can see how the Future Track below wants to show continued clusters of t-storms working in from the west and southwest as temperatures start dropping back into the upper 60s.
With the t-storm chances for Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning, some of those have the risk of turning strong to low-grade severe. We’ll keep an eye on the chance for strong to severe t-storms across the Kansas and Oklahoma side from 6 PM Tuesday until 4 AM Wednesday. If any storms in our area turn severe, the main threats will be large hail and some high wind gusts.
Beyond that chance for strong to severe t-storms, the cold front will still be off to our northwest with the main upper low still in play as well. That will keep periods of rain and t-storms in the forecast for Wednesday. We’ll plan on scattered t-storms to start the Wednesday AM commute out with lows mainly in the middle 60s.
While we could see a bit of a break in the action by late Wednesday morning and early Wednesday afternoon, we’ll have additional periods of rain and t-storms roll in for the rest of the afternoon and into Wednesday evening. While some of those could be strong to severe, we’ll have to see how Tuesday plays out before we can properly gauge any severe potential for Wednesday. Regardless of how the t-storm chances play out, it and the mostly cloudy skies will keep us mild with highs in the lower 70s for Wednesday afternoon.
Once the front clears out of here by Wednesday night, we’ll have to be patient as our upper-level low continues to track to our south. With this low in action and us behind the cold front, we’ll turn a bit cooler for Thursday with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s. We’ll also keep a chance for scattered showers around under partly sunny skies across the area.
When this entire storm system is gone, we could end up with some heavy amounts of rain. Depending on how the t-storm chances develop and track across the area, we could have some areas see 1 to 3 inches while others range between half an inch and an inch on the low end. With these amounts, we’ll have to keep an eye on potential flooding concerns through the middle of this week.
Once we get to the upcoming weekend, we’re looking pretty good for most of it. While we’ll stay on the cooler side of the jet for Friday, partly sunny skies will send highs into the lower to middle 60s after we get past a cold start in the upper 30s. By Saturday, look at our jet stream setup down below. With mostly sunny skies and the core jet stream back on top of us, we’ll see highs turn quite mild as we’ll top out in the middle 70s.
While most of us will stay quiet for Sunday as highs climb back into the lower 80s, we’ll watch for our next storm system out west that’ll change our weather up once again. Even though we have some isolated t-storms possible on Sunday and scattered t-storms for Monday, we’ll have to watch both days as they could bring strong to severe t-storms our way.
If you’re curious about how we look for May and much of the month of June, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
May 4th-8th: After a mild Tuesday, we’ll warm back up for Wednesday through Friday before a slight cool down on Saturday. We’ll watch for severe weather chances on Tuesday and Friday before we see just regular t-storms on Saturday.
May 9th-May 15th: We’ll stay mild for Sunday and Monday before a warm up kicks in for Tuesday and Wednesday. After a mild Thursday, we’ll be warm to start the weekend out. We’ll watch for t-storms on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. We’ll watch Wednesday the 12th and Saturday the 15th for severe weather chances.
May 16th-May 22nd: Except for a warm Tuesday, we’ll stay mainly mild for this week. We’ll watch for slight t-storm chances on Sunday, a severe threat for Tuesday the 18th, a severe threat for Thursday the 20th, a severe threat for Friday the 21st and additional t-storms on Saturday.
May 23rd-May 29th: We’ll go from warm temperatures Sunday & Monday to a mild stretch for the middle of the week and back to warm temperatures by the weekend. We’ll watch for a severe threat for Sunday through Tuesday, showers on Wednesday and another chance for severe weather on Saturday the 29th.
May 30th-June 5th: We’ll bounce between mild and warm temperatures to start the week before a mild stretch kicks in for Wednesday and Thursday. We should be warm for Friday and mild for Saturday. T-storms are possible for Sunday, Tuesday and Friday followed by rain chances on Saturday.
June 6th-June 12th: Temperatures look mild for Sunday before we turn warmer for Monday & Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll be warm for Thursday before we heat up for the weekend. We’ll watch for t-storms on Monday and Tuesday before a severe threat returns on Saturday.
June 13th-June 19th: With the exception of a mild Friday, we’ll mainly be warm for this week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, t-storms on Tuesday, strong to severe t-storms on Wednesday and another shot for t-storms on Thursday.
June 20th-June 26th: The week starts hot before we back down to warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday. We should turn hot again for Saturday. We’ll watch for t-storm chances on Tuesday and Thursday.