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Latest updated blog – Staying mild for the next few days – Nick

Good early Tuesday morning, everyone. While we kept much of our Monday on the quiet side, we did see cloud cover work back into the area after a beautiful end to our weekend on Sunday. Not only that, the cloud cover and the cold front that passed through Sunday night have definitely made an impact on our temperatures. After our warm Sunday with highs between the upper 70s and lower 80s, we dropped into the upper 40s Monday morning and topped out in the lower to middle 60s for the afternoon.

Looking to our weather setup, the surface map shows our cold front that passed through on Sunday night just to our south. That has kept any strong to severe t-storm chances across parts of Texas for Monday afternoon and into Monday evening. Since we’re on the backside of the front, we did see our southwest wind from Sunday shift back out of the north.

Looking upstairs at the jet stream level, it’s an interesting setup to observe. With the core jet just to our south, that will keep temperatures a bit below normal as we work into your Tuesday. While one upper-level low passes across the Upper Midwest, a subtle wave is working along the jet and the Oklahoma/Kansas line. That’s what keeping cloud cover around to start the overnight and some scattered showers as well. To our northwest, we’ll be watching that upper-level low sitting over northern Idaho. That will head our way with more changes by the weekend.

For the short term, the wave working across the Oklahoma/Kansas line will keep skies mostly cloudy through the overnight hours and some scattered showers around. While the best chances for any showers overnight and before sunrise Tuesday morning is for the southeastern parts of the viewing area, the expected coverage will hold between 30% and 40%.

As the wave moves on, we’ll see some partly sunny skies filter in as any chances for showers slides to our east by the time the AM drive gets going. Whether you start the day out with partly sunny or mostly cloudy skies, we’ll all start the day on a cool note with lows mainly in the middle to upper 40s.

While the partly sunny skies will help temperatures climb upward with a light north breeze through the late morning, we’ll have more upper-level energy send mostly cloudy skies back in here for the afternoon. Fortunately, we’ll still have a mild day. While temperatures will sit around 60° by lunchtime, we’ll have highs back around 63°. Even though the vast majority of the area should stay dry during the day, I won’t rule out a very slim chance for a random shower late in the day.

While the departed front and upper-level energy will keep the best chances for rain and t-storms for Tuesday evening and Tuesday night to our south across southern and eastern Oklahoma, we’ll watch for a few showers to try and clip our far southern counties as we head into Tuesday night. Otherwise, our mostly cloudy skies to start the evening out should turn partly cloudy by Wednesday morning as lows drop back into the middle 40s.

The main story for Wednesday and Thursday will be a weak upper-level ridge sliding across the area. It may not be strong enough to see a bump in temperatures, but it will be strong enough to keep us dry under partly sunny skies. We’ll have highs hold in the lower 60s on Wednesday and just dropping into the upper 50s for Thursday.

Remember how we looked at the upper-level setup and we pointed out the upper-level low sitting over Idaho? That will start working in on Friday and set the overall tone for the upcoming weekend. I’m still expecting cloudy skies for Friday and periods of light to moderate rain to spread across the region. If this setup holds firm and we can’t find either a break in the cloud cover or the rain chances, we’ll be lucky if we can get highs into the lower 50s for Friday afternoon.

Beyond Friday, that wave moves off to the east while another upper-level low starts sneaking in from the north. With both upper-level lows keeping the jet stream well to the south, it will remain rather chilly for Saturday and Sunday. With mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers still possible for both Saturday and Sunday, that will keep highs in the lower to middle 50s.

Once we get past the weekend, one upper-level low wants to try and hold on as it sits over St. Louis. This will keep us partly sunny and chilly with a few showers for Monday as we kick off a new work/school week. Monday morning should start in the upper 30s and top out in the upper 50s before we turn mild once again through the middle of next week.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of the month, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

April 20th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’ll be mild through Wednesday before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.

April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.

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