Good early Wednesday morning, everyone. Most of us got through our Tuesday on a quiet note as everyone turned in another very mild or warm afternoon. Our warm Tuesday afternoon was a trend that continued from our warm holiday weekend. After our warm Monday afternoon, we started in the lower 60s Tuesday morning before we climbed back into the middle 70s.
Looking at our weather setup, our storm system out west is finally making its move into our area. At the surface, we’ve been watching the cold front work across western and central Kansas throughout Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of it, we have seen a cluster of strong to severe t-storms develop and work off to the east. This will be the front that will work in and serve as a focal point for additional rain and t-storms for the first part of our Wednesday.
In addition to the front at the surface, we also have an upper low coming out of Colorado and into the Central Plains to help push this frontal system along and help aid in our t-storm chances. This will also serve to keep some rain chances around Wednesday night and into Thursday before another upper low coming out of the Gulf of Alaska could bring additional t-storms in here to start the weekend out.
You know that we take each storm system one at a time. So, let’s focus on the system working in from the immediate west first. The cluster of storms stretching from Great Bend to Salina and Manhattan will continue on it’s easterly and northeasterly course as we venture into the overnight. As expected, we are in the upper 60s to start the day out. I do expect these temperatures to be our warmest before the rain chances and the cold front start to bring in some cooler air.
Heading toward 3 AM, the cluster of t-storms wants to start clipping our far northern counties. While much of the strong to severe t-storms want to stay along the I-35 and I-70 corridor in KS heading toward Topeka and Kansas City, we can’t rule out some of those strong to severe t-storms affecting some of our local spots along and north of US 54. In the meantime, we’ll have temperatures dropping into the middle 60s.
By the time the AM drive gets going, the big complex of t-storms should be on the way into western and central Missouri between Kansas City and Columbia and could extend as far south as Lebanon northeast of Springfield. For our area, we’ll have temperatures in the lower to middle 60s under mostly cloudy skies as we’ll watch for additional rain and t-storms along the cold front as it works into our western counties.
Regarding our t-storm chances for our early Wednesday morning, any chance for severe weather will be in the low risk covering our far northern and northwestern counties from the complex of storms coming out of north-central Kansas. Any of those t-storms that can clip our far northern counties between 1 AM and 5 AM could bring some wind gusts up to 60 or 65 mph and some hail up to the size of quarters or half-dollars. For the rest of the area, we’ll focus on strong t-storms that will continue to develop along the advancing cold front.
That front will start to approach the US 69 corridor around 10 AM as it continues to fill in with rain and t-storms. At this stage of the game, we don’t seem to be too worried about any t-storms turning too strong. While areas ahead of the front will hold in the lower to middle 60s late in the morning, areas behind the front will start to drop into the middle to upper 50s.
By noon, the front will approach the I-49 corridor. As it does, we do note the potential for more in the way of t-storms to develop along the front as it continues pushing off to the east. While we will keep an eye on these t-storms as they continue to work across southwestern Missouri, we don’t expect these to turn too strong as we get the afternoon started.
Once the front clears the area, it will find a better atmosphere across central Missouri and central Arkansas to really allow for rain and t-storms to develop. While we could see a bit of a break during the afternoon, we’ll watch for the wrap-around moisture on the backside of this system to keep cloud cover in the forecast and introduce a few showers for some of our western counties by late afternoon. Also, note the temperatures behind the front. It will be a bit cooler compared to the warm couple of days we’ve had. By 4 in the afternoon, we’ll have temperatures between the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region.
Looking beyond Wednesday afternoon, the backside of this system doesn’t want to completely leave the area. We’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers for parts of the area for Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. For Thursday, the system will begin to lift toward the Great Lakes. While that will allow partly sunny skies to return to the area, we won’t rule out some scattered showers for areas north and east of Joplin and Pittsburg. With the return of partly sunny skies, most of us should make a nice run into the middle to upper 60s for the afternoon.
As far as rain totals go with this system, we aren’t expecting much. Even with some of the rain and t-storms that could produce some moderate downpours (maybe an occasional bout of heavy rainfall), rain totals by Thursday evening could range between a tenth and half an inch while areas north and east of our area will see the higher amounts.
For Friday, we’ll see another jump in temperatures as we should climb into the middle to upper 70s. While the day starts dry, let’s watch our next wave wanting to roll in. It wants to bring in the chance for scattered t-storms (maybe a few strong ones as well) as we work into Friday afternoon and Friday night.
Once that wave clears the area, we’ll stay partly sunny and dry for your Saturday as highs take yet another dip. After we start in the middle 40s Saturday morning, we’ll rebound nicely into the middle 60s for Saturday afternoon. While much of Sunday is looking dry with partly sunny skies and highs pushing back into the middle 70s, we’ll have yet another wave to watch as we work into Sunday night and into Monday. That will bring in another shot for scattered t-storms as we wrap up the weekend and kick off the new work/school week.
Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll stay dry and mild for Tuesday before we see other systems line up for the rest of next week. If you’re curious about how we look for next week and the rest of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!
April 14th-April 17th: We’ll see t-storms return on Wednesday, showers on Thursday, rain chances on Friday and slight rain chances on Saturday. We’ll turn mild for Wednesday and cool down again for the rest of the week.
April 18th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’re mild to start the week before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.
April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.