Latest updated blog – Warm Tuesday before t-storm chances roll in – Nick

Good Monday evening, everyone. Right after we wrapped up the weekend on a warm note with our Easter Sunday, we kept the warmth going once again to get the new work/school week started. From our highs in the middle 70s at Joplin Regional Sunday afternoon, we dropped back into the middle 50s this morning before we jumped back into the upper 70s today. That’s not a bad feat when you consider we had partly sunny skies back in play today and a south wind sustained at 10-20 mph (gusts near 30 mph).

Looking at our weather setup, we kept quiet once again today while a dry line across western Kansas and Oklahoma keeps sending cloud cover our way for the night and our Tuesday. However, our eyes are on the frontal system to our north. While this frontal system covers quite a bit of real estate, it’s the cold front extending from Wyoming through Utah, Nevada and California that we’re watching. That’s the front that will start to work in late Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Looking upstairs at the jet stream level, we still find ourselves underneath an upper-level ridge while we keep an eye on the low coming out of Idaho. As it starts working across the Central Rockies and into the Central Plains on our Tuesday and Wednesday, that will push the front our way and increase our chances for rain and t-storms.

Before the front gets here, we’ll continue to see cloud cover come in from central Kansas and central Oklahoma with our south wind at 10-20 mph (gusts at 25 mph). While a few outlying areas could sneak back into the upper 50s, most spots should start Tuesday morning out with lows around 60°.

Even with the front working into western Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Tuesday afternoon, we’ll see temperatures eager to warm up once again as highs top out around 76°. While more moisture starts to get pulled in ahead of the cold front, I’ll keep an eye on the afternoon. While the vast majority of the area should stay dry during the day, it wouldn’t surprise me if some moisture could break through some of the warmer air aloft and fire off a random shower or t-storm. While it is a possibility, it’s a slim possibility at 10% during the day. Again, overall expectations are for the area to stay dry during the day.

By Tuesday night, the cold front starts to make its play. While we start the evening on a dry note, we’ll keep close watch on the radar as early as 8 to 10 o’clock. We are anticipating t-storms to develop to our west ahead of the front. As they develop, they will be strong to severe with wind and hail being the main threats.

Working into the overnight hours, that complex of t-storms wants to clip our northern counties while additional t-storms want to develop on top of the region These t-storms will continue to bring pockets of heavy rain, wind gusts and some hail our way as we venture through the early morning hours.

Actually, that appears to be the best chance for any of our t-storms with this front to be strong to severe. The low risk for severe weather for areas along and northwest of Chanute, Uniontown, Fredonia and Howard is the best chance for severe t-storms. In general, we’ll keep an eye on the t-storms between 11 PM Tuesday and 5 AM as we work into Wednesday. While the tornado threat looks very minimal, we’ll be mainly focused on t-storms with the potential for hail, wind and some pockets of heavy rain.

For our Wednesday AM commute, plan on scattered rain and t-storms to stick around as temperatures start with early highs in the upper 60s and dropping into the lower to middle 60s by 7 AM.

As the cold front works on through, we’ll see temperatures fluctuate between the upper 50s and lower 60s for the late morning hours and for the afternoon. Even though the front pushes any strong t-storm chances to our east, moisture wrapping around the backside of this system will keep us mostly cloudy for the day and keep scattered rain chances around.

While the cold front and the upper-level low will be on the way out for our Thursday, we’ll still have moisture wrapping around both systems to keep partly sunny skies and some scattered rain chances around. With this in the forecast and the jet closely overhead, we’ll have highs top out in the middle 60s for Thursday.

As far as rain totals go with this system before it leaves us late Thursday, we’re expecting rain amounts for most to range between a quarter of an inch to half an inch.

Looking to the weekend, we’ll stay dry and partly sunny for Friday as highs bounce back into the middle 70s. However, we’ll have another wave sneak in for late Friday night and into Saturday morning with some scattered t-storm chances to go along with it. Once this wave clears out by Saturday morning, we’ll stay dry for Saturday afternoon with highs taking a brief dip into the middle 60s.

For Sunday, we’ll keep much of the day dry under partly sunny skies. That should allow highs to bounce back into the middle 70s before another wave sneaks in. As it does, we’ll watch for a few t-storms late Sunday afternoon with some better rain and t-storm chances rolling in for Sunday night and lasting into our Monday.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

April 13th-April 17th: After a dry Tuesday, t-storms again on Wednesday, showers on Thursday, rain chances on Friday and slight rain chances on Saturday. After a brief cool down for Tuesday, we’ll turn mild for Wednesday and cool down again for the rest of the week.

April 18th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’re mild to start the week before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.

April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.

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