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Latest updated blog – Dry Monday before t-storm chances return – Nick

Good Sunday evening, everyone. Hopefully, this Easter Sunday (or Sunday in general) has been good to everyone. Mother Nature certainly helped out in the weather department in making this a nice day. After our mild Saturday with highs in the lower 70s, we had a warm Sunday with highs back in the middle 70s after we started chilly in the lower 50s this morning.

Looking at our weather setup, there hasn’t been much of a change at the surface compared to Saturday. Even though an area of high pressure is still centered across the Southeast, it’s still keeping our southerly wind in place as we get the new work/school week started. Off to our immediate west in central and western Kansas, we have partly cloudy skies ready to roll in to get our Monday morning started. That’s cloud cover from a decaying batch of rain and t-storms ahead of a dryline that dissipated to our west. While we have quite a frontal system stretched across the northern parts of the country, we’re focused on the cold front out in the Pacific Northwest that will head our way.

Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’re still on the warmer side of the jet while we watch the upper-level low over the state of Washington. Once that wave works into the Rockies and the Central Plains, that will push the cold front our way and ramp up our chances for rain and t-storms for the middle of the week.

Until that happens, we’ll stay dry as we turn chilly for your Monday morning. Even with a south breeze at 10-15 mph and partly cloudy skies sneaking in, we’ll have lows start in the middle 50s across the area.

With partly sunny skies staying in place and a south breeze at 10-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) through the afternoon, we’ll see temperatures in the lower 70s at the noon hour and afternoon highs top back out in the middle 70s. Some spots west of US 59 could see highs in the upper 70s before the afternoon is all said and done.

Tuesday will stay warm as highs climb back into the middle and upper 70s ahead of our next storm system. While most of us will stay dry for Tuesday afternoon due to some warm air aloft, I won’t rule out a few random t-storms for the afternoon.

As the upper low continues to push a cold front through central Kansas and into eastern Kansas by Tuesday night, that’s when our t-storm chances will start to increase. Ahead of the cold front, we’ll see either a line of t-storms or a developing complex of t-storms work into our far western counties as early as 9 PM. As these storms start rolling in, they will have the chance of being strong to severe.

Heading into early Wednesday morning, our chances for t-storms will continue as we stay ahead of the cold front. Even though the first initial burst of t-storms might weaken, we’ll continue to have t-storms develop on top of the region.

While indication show our best shot for any strong to severe t-storms winding down by 5 or 6 AM, we’ll still hold on to rain and t-storm chances as we get your Wednesday morning commute started.

Since this system fits Doug’s pattern very well, we’ll keep an eye out for a low severe threat with our t-storms late Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning. The timing of those t-storms will be between 9 o’clock Tuesday night and 5 o’clock Wednesday morning. While the main threats with these t-storms will be wind gusts, large hail and some bouts of heavy rain, we can’t rule out a few isolated tornadoes. Unless I see our setup become more unstable or the wind profile shift in a direction that could dictate a higher tornado threat, I’m keeping the tornado threat low.

Even with our chances for strong to severe t-storms coming to an end by Wednesday morning, we’ll still deal with rain and some t-storm chances as we start to get on the backside of this system. With this keeping us mostly cloudy, we’ll have highs early in the upper 60s across the region before we drop back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for Wednesday afternoon.

Before the system completely moves on, the backside of the upper-level low still wants to keep mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain chances around for our Thursday. Given that scenario, we’ll expect lows in the upper 40s to start the day and afternoon highs topping out in the lower 60s.

As we get the weekend started, we’ll find ourselves back on the warmer side of the jet and skies staying partly to mostly sunny. Friday will look nice with highs back in the middle 70s before a little dip back into the upper 60s heads our way for Saturday.

Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll watch for an upper-level wave to slide near us for Sunday. While we stay warm with highs in the middle 70s under partly sunny skies, this wave wants to bring in some scattered t-storms for us to contend with.

If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

April 12th-April 17th: We’ll stay a bit active with rain & t-storms for Monday, t-storms again on Wednesday, showers on Thursday, rain chances on Friday and slight rain chances on Saturday. We’ll be mild to start the week before a brief cool down for Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll stay rather cool for the rest of the week.

April 18th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’re mild to start the week before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.

April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.

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