Good Saturday evening, everyone. So far, Mother Nature has been kind to us by keeping our skies quiet and temperatures mild for our weekend. After we went through a chilly Thursday, we saw highs climb back into the upper 60s to start the weekend out on our Friday afternoon. Once we got past a cool start with lows in the middle 40s, we managed to climb back above normal with highs in the lower 70s at Joplin Regional and lower to middle 70s across the rest of the region.
Looking at our weather setup, we don’t have any immediate systems at the surface on the way. Even though, we have an area of high pressure over the Georgia/South Carolina coast, it’s certainly strong enough to keep our southerly wind in place for tonight and for Easter Sunday. While the frontal system to our north won’t be an issue for us, we’ll keep an eye on another cold front sneaking into the Pacific Northwest. While it does want to partner up with the bigger frontal system in the northern parts of the country, it’ll be that trailing cold front that will roll in by the middle of the coming week.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, we find ourselves on the warmer side of the main jet. While that kept us mild today and will keep us mild for Easter Sunday, there is a weak wave underneath this broad upper-level ridge rolling across Texas. It may bring some afternoon cloud cover our way for Easter Sunday, but we’ll stay dry across the region. The next upper low that we’ll have to watch will be the low near Vancouver. That’s the low that wants to bring the next cold front and t-storm chances our way by the middle of the week.
While we did enjoy a mild evening, the southerly wind has backed down to speeds between 5 & 15 mph. With that and mostly clear skies, we’ll see your Easter Sunday lows a bit warmer compared to how we started today. However, it will be chilly for Easter Sunrise Services or for any plans to start your Sunday morning out as lows drop back into the upper 40s to near 50°.
As we continue through the rest of the day, the weak wave working across Texas could try to bring some partly sunny skies our way as we get into the afternoon. Otherwise, the southerly wind will kick back into gear at 10-20 mph and push us toward another mild afternoon. After everyone starts the afternoon out in the upper 60s, we’ll have highs climb into the lower to middle 70s across the region.
To get the new work/school week started, our area staying on the warmer side of the jet will keep us mild with highs in the middle 70s under partly sunny skies. Tuesday is when we’ll start to see some changes begin to edge in. Ahead of the upper-level low working across the Rockies and the accompanying cold front, we could see a few random t-storms in the afternoon as highs push into the upper 70s.
Heading into late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, we’ll expect the upper-level low and our next cold front to increase our rain and t-storm chances. It certainly looks possible that storms out west ahead of the cold front late Tuesday night could roll in for our Wednesday morning before we could see another potential round of t-storms for the afternoon. While current indications show a possible severe threat setting up for the southern Ozarks of Missouri and northern Arkansas for Wednesday, we won’t rule out some strong (possibly severe) t-storms in our area for Wednesday. Even with mostly cloudy skies and rain chances around, it’ll still be mild with highs around 70°.
Even though the cold front will move on as we work into Thursday, the upper-level low wants to keep some moisture around. Due to that, we’ll stick with mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain as we work through our Thursday. With us also on the cooler side of the jet once again, we’ll only go from lows in the upper 40s to highs in the upper 50s for a chilly afternoon.
Fortunately, Thursday’s cool down will be very short-lived. We’ll hop back on the warmer side of the jet as we head into the upcoming weekend. With mostly sunny skies for Friday, that will take us from morning lows in the middle 40s to afternoon highs back around 70°. By next Saturday, another weak wave wants to work across Texas. While it mainly passes to our south, it wants to bring partly sunny skies back in for Saturday and a slight chance for a random t-storm. Otherwise, we’ll stay mild for Saturday with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
If you’re curious about how we look for the month of April, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Easter Sunday!
Nick
April 11th-April 17th: We’re looking at another kind of active week with slight t-storm chances Sunday, rain & t-storms for Monday, t-storms again on Wednesday, showers on Thursday, rain chances on Friday and slight rain chances on Saturday. We’ll be mild to start the week before a brief cool down for Tuesday. After a mild Wednesday, we’ll stay rather cool for the rest of the week.
April 18th-April 24th: With the exception of some t-storm chances on Tuesday, we’re looking at mainly a quiet week. We’re mild to start the week before we warm back up for Thursday and to start the weekend out.
April 25th-May 1st: Several waves will be on the way for this week. We’ll watch for t-storms and a severe threat for our Sunday. After t-storm chances for Monday and Tuesday, we’ll watch for a severe threat with our t-storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll dry out for Friday and Saturday before we see another wave with a possible severe threat by that following Sunday, May 2nd. Sunday will be warm before we settle for a mild stretch from Monday through Friday. We’ll turn warm again on Saturday.