Good Monday evening, everyone. On the heels of our last cold front that rolled on through yesterday, we turned back to nice and brighter weather with mostly sunny skies as our rule of thumb for today. After the front brought temperatures back into the lower 50s for Sunday afternoon, we dropped into the middle to upper 20s for a cold start this morning. Thanks to mostly sunny skies, drier air and a light breeze through the day, we were able to bounce back into the lower 50s at Joplin Regional this afternoon.
Breaking down our weather setup as we start to look down the road, first impressions from the surface may suggest that no big systems are on the way. While a cold front is draped just to our north across northern and central Missouri, that is starting to head back to the north as a southerly breeze kicks in throughout the rest of the night.
If we head upstairs to the jet stream level, that’s where we find a few systems to keep an eye on. First up, we have an upper-level low working across the Oklahoma/Texas border that will graze us just to our south as we head into Tuesday. Once we get that out of the picture, we see an upper-level ridge out in the Desert Southwest that will build in for the middle of the week before the low out near San Francisco plays a role in our forecast by the start of the upcoming weekend.
Let’s talk about the upper-level low that will come out of the Texas/Oklahoma border and slide just to our south. For the vast majority of the area, this low will not be a bother for us as we work through the overnight and into Tuesday morning. However, the low will have some moisture to work with as it continues along on its journey. The Future Track below shows most of the area dry under mostly clear skies at 2 AM.
During the early morning hours, though, we’ll still keep an eye on this upper low. There’s a slim chance that some of that moisture will bring in some cloud cover for areas south of US 60. In addition, it wouldn’t surprise me if we got a random shower or two if enough moisture can sneak in to those areas. Everyone else will start the day out under mostly clear skies and cold temperatures. While parts of southeast Kansas will start out in the middle to upper 20s, much of the area will start out near freezing.
Once we get past the AM drive, the rest of the day will be pretty good for us all. As the upper low moves into the Tennessee Valley, that will leave us with mostly sunny skies and a southwest wind at 5-15 mph to warm us back up. While most areas around Joplin and Pittsburg will top out in the middle 50s for Tuesday afternoon, we won’t rule out some upper 50s across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.
While we do turn cold again for Wednesday morning under mostly clear skies, the south breeze will only limit temperatures to drop back into the middle 30s as we get your Wednesday started.
For Wednesday, our weather setup is looking great. With a southwest wind at 5-15 mph and mostly sunny skies, we’ll see highs back into the middle 60s across the region.
That nice bump in temperatures will come our way once the upper-level low for Tuesday clears out and the upper-level ridge slides in from the west. With this setup holding for Thursday as well under partly sunny skies, we’ll keep highs in the middle 60s. Note what will be waiting for us just our west, though.
While that upper-level low may start to bring in some rain chances late Thursday night, we’ll see our rain chances pick up as cloudy skies roll in as well for our Friday. With this setup, we’ll see lows in the middle 40s and highs only topping out around 50.
While the weekend may not start off the way we’d like, that low clears out and will leave us partly sunny for the rest of the weekend. With another upper-level ridge wanting to build in, we’ll see highs back near 60 on Saturday and into the lower 60s for Sunday.
While we stay mild with highs in the middle 60s for Monday, we’ll stick with Doug’s pattern and watch for a system to bring in rain chances for Monday before it cools us back down by Tuesday. Doug has your long range forecast for the whole month of March and the first few days of April down below.
Have a good night and a great Tuesday!
Next Tuesday-Saturday: Cooling down a bit Tuesday but back to mild temps by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Cooling down and drier for the weekend.
March 14th-20th: We start the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday. The cycle before this system produced 1″ of snow. With cool temperatures for Sunday, we’ll watch it. Mild temperatures return for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. This system gave us severe weather with some tornado warnings on January 30th, lets watch this one! Cool for Friday before we turn milder for Saturday as we start a dry weekend out.
March 21st-27th: We’ll be mild for Sunday and Monday before we turn briefly cooler for Tuesday. A brief jump to a mild Wednesday before we stay cool for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for slight rain chances on Monday and better rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday.
March 28th-April 3rd: Cool temperatures for Sunday and Monday. We’ll briefly turn mild for Tuesday and Wednesday before we cool back down for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, slight rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances on Thursday and rain/snow chances to start the weekend out.