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Latest updated blog – Turning chilly for your Sunday – Nick

Good Saturday evening, everyone. After we started the weekend out on a cool note with highs in the upper 40s, we trended quite a bit milder today with highs in the lower to middle 60s. That was certainly a good bounce in temperatures after dealing with cold temperatures and some dense fog to start our Saturday morning out.

Breaking down our weather setup, we had a quiet day before we had some scattered rain and t-storms develop late in the afternoon and to start the evening out. The Storm Prediction Center did clip areas just to our south with a marginal risk for a few strong to severe t-storms with hail being possible. Fortunately, any rain and t-storms we’ve seen this evening have behaved. The changing upper-level dynamics and thermodynamics will shift any potential for t-storms with some small hail to our east. That being said, we still have a cold front to our west.

Looking at the setup upstairs, we have an upper-level low working across the northern Rockies. This low at the jet stream level will actually split into two as we work into Sunday. One low will track across the Northern Plains and push our cold front through and rain chances out of here by tomorrow afternoon. The other low will dig into the Desert Southwest as we work into Sunday and Monday.

Looking ahead, we’ll have to start things out with scattered showers and a few t-storms during the overnight and into our Sunday morning. You can see how the cold front working in will work to serve as additional lift to keep scattered rain chances and a few t-storms in the forecast. Even if we hear some rumbles of thunder, we aren’t expecting anything severe.

While most of us will stay in the 50s to start the overnight out, cooler air behind the front will drop us back into the 40s as we get our Sunday morning started.

While some scattered showers are possible to start the day, the passing cold front will put an end to that by late morning and into the afternoon ahead of us.

Even though the front clears out the rain chances for the afternoon, the cloud cover may not be so eager to rapidly follow suit. With mostly cloudy skies still expected for the afternoon and a north wind at 5-15 mph (gusts near 20), we’ll only see afternoon temperatures climb back into the lower 50s.

Once we get the evening started, we’ll see our skies start to turn mostly clear. However, the lighter north breeze will mean a cool evening leading to a cold start in the upper 20s for our Monday morning.

With partly to mostly sunny skies and a light north breeze for Monday, we’ll start the work/school week out on a good note with highs bouncing back into the lower 50s across the region.

Let’s talk about the rest of the week. Do you remember the upper-level low out in the northern Rockies and how it will split into two separate waves? The second wave will come out of the Desert Southwest and work across the Southern Plains. This wants to track to our south as we work into Tuesday. There’s still some indications of some moisture wanting to clip us as it passes to our south. If enough moisture can work in for Tuesday morning as we see lows in the lower to middle 30s, this could result in some scattered rain/snow showers to start the day out. Other indications want the moisture to stay to our south. I have some scattered rain/snow showers possible for Tuesday morning before we head toward a dry Tuesday afternoon with highs around 50. While this doesn’t look like a big system for us, it’s something we’ll still watch for the next few days.

After we get past a quiet Wednesday with highs back near 60, we’ll have another system come our way from the west. You can see how we start Thursday dry down below before the system starts to bring in scattered t-storm chances late Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night.

This wave will still be around as we work into Friday. The t-storm chances will push off to our south and east, but we’ll hold on to the rain chances and cloudy skies through the day as highs will only top out in the middle 50s.

After we start next weekend out with some rain chances, current indications keep us chilly and dry for Saturday before we turn a little milder by that following Sunday and Monday. Doug has your long range forecast for the whole month of March and the first few days of April down below.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

March 7th-13th:  Mild start with rain chances on Monday.  Cooling down a bit Tuesday but back to mild temps by Wednesday.  Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down and drier for the weekend.

March 14th-20th:  We start the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday.  The cycle before this system produced 1″ of snow.  With cool temperatures for Sunday, we’ll watch it.  Mild temperatures return for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  This system gave us severe weather with some tornado warnings on January 30th, lets watch this one!  Cool for Friday before we turn milder for Saturday as we start a dry weekend out.

March 21st-27th:  We’ll be mild for Sunday and Monday before we turn briefly cooler for Tuesday. A brief jump to a mild Wednesday before we stay cool for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for slight rain chances on Monday and better rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday.

March 28th-April 3rd:  Cool temperatures for Sunday and Monday. We’ll briefly turn mild for Tuesday and Wednesday before we cool back down for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, slight rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances on Thursday and rain/snow chances to start the weekend out.

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