Good Thursday night! I hope you have had a great week so far. The weather has been great so far. It was a little colder today, but all and all, it has been a great week. First off, lets briefly discuss the spring. Winter isn’t over yet, but meteorologically, spring starts on March 1st. So in my head, spring is almost here. Now, I still think we have a couple shots at additional wintry weather. However, looking at the overall pattern, I would expect these to be smaller systems. In the spring months we average 8-10 severe weather events from March 1st-June 10th. Last year we had 9 events, we just didn’t have tornadic activity. The 2019 spring was very active with about 15 events. I think we will have a slow start to the severe weather season. This is due to the massive two week arctic blast we just finished. When arctic air reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it really cools the ocean temps down. They are warming now, but a little behind. This means severe weather season probably won’t really get going until April. We can have severe weather in March, but overall, severe weather will be down. This is an interesting Heady Pattern. This pattern will last until September, then the new pattern will start. So what could we see this spring. We don’t have a ton of big systems in this pattern. We are on a short 46 day cycle and it has about 3 bigger systems in the pattern. All the other systems are much weaker. The bigger systems could cause us some issues though. The traditional tornado alley, won’t be extremely active this spring. It looks to be more of Texas, Oklahoma (east of I-35), extreme SE KS, MO and AR. I also think it will be very active for the dixie states. I think we will be closer to the average on severe weather events, but we have a higher potential for bigger events compared to what we had last spring. I will do a more in-depth spring and summer forecast over the next couple of weeks. I did want to give you a quick preview. Also, my long range forecast is below.
A few random showers for us tonight after midnight. This will be mainly south of I-44.
Clouds stick around with a few random showers on Friday. High around 52.
Saturday looks great! Partly sunny and should top out around 65.
Clouds will increase Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers roll back in Saturday night and into Sunday.
Monday looks good! Tuesday, a weak wave passes to our south. This could give us a few random showers.
All of these systems are fast moving weak waves. We do have a much stronger system that will affect us next Thursday and Friday. Long range forecast below.
Next Friday-Saturday: Cooler Friday with some morning showers. Saturday looks pretty good as we should be dry and mild.
March 7th-13th: Mild start with rain chances on Monday. Cooling down a bit Tuesday but back to mild temps by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Cooling down and drier for the weekend.
March 14th-20th: We start the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday. The cycle before this system produced 1″ of snow. With cool temperatures for Sunday, we’ll watch it. Mild temperatures return for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. This system gave us severe weather with some tornado warnings on January 30th, lets watch this one! Cool for Friday before we turn milder for Saturday as we start a dry weekend out.
March 21st-27th: We’ll be mild for Sunday and Monday before we turn briefly cooler for Tuesday. A brief jump to a mild Wednesday before we stay cool for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for slight rain chances on Monday and better rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday.
March 28th-April 3rd: Cool temperatures for Sunday and Monday. We’ll briefly turn mild for Tuesday and Wednesday before we cool back down for the rest of the week. We’ll watch for rain chances on Sunday, slight rain chances on Wednesday, rain chances on Thursday and rain/snow chances to start the weekend out.