Good Saturday evening, everyone. Somehow, we made it through this crazy week. From the prior week giving us freezing rain to this week’s snow systems and plenty of Arctic air in between, this has been an interesting 2-week stretch in our winter season. After staying below 30 for 2 weeks, we had highs back above freezing today. We tried to make a run for the freezing mark on Friday, but we only could make it to 30 after we started in the single digits across the region. Even with a cold start in the middle teens, we soared back into the middle 40s for Joplin and a good portion of the area this afternoon.
Not only did the sunshine we saw for much of the day help temperatures climb, so did the surface setup. We had a southerly wind in place on the backside of an area of high pressure in the Appalachian Mountains and ahead of our next front out west. Yes… After our crazy week of weather, we have another system on the way to wrap up the weekend. We have this next system showing up as a cold front at the surface.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, it was nice that we had a bit of an upper-level ridge slide just to our south. While we enjoyed seeing that pass by today to help bump temperatures up, we see an upper-level low off to our west working across Utah and Colorado. That low and the cold front will work together to bring some rain chances our way to wrap up the weekend.
Let’s talk about how this will play out for your Sunday. Cloud cover has been on the increase since we started the late evening out. That cloud cover will continue to pick up as we roll into the overnight and Sunday morning. Even with cloudy skies and a south breeze at 5-15 mph (gusts near 25), we’ll have lows overnight in the lower to middle 30s. There is a chance that some spots could sneak back to the freezing mark of just below freezing. If temperatures hold as any drizzle develops as this system starts rolling in, that could lead to a few areas of light freezing drizzle. That being said, I do not see this as a big issue for your Sunday morning.
In fact, temperatures will be nudging back into mainly the middle 30s by the time we get closer to sunrise. So if we had any areas of freezing drizzle, it would be very light and not amount to anything more than a nuisance. Not only that, it wouldn’t last long once we get temperatures back above 32.
Once the morning gets started, we’ll see the front push in and serve as an area for more moisture to lift up and turn our chances for drizzle into scattered showers. Even with the rain chances and cloudy skies around, the southerly wind will increase between 10 and 20 mph. That will push us near 40 by lunchtime.
Even as the wind turns out of the west as our cold front works through under cloudy skies and scattered showers, we’ll still see highs topping out in the lower 40s across the region before Sunday afternoon is all said and done.
Once we get Sunday evening started, this front will press on and back things down to a few showers. By late Sunday night, the rain chances will be gone as we trend toward a drier night. This doesn’t look like a big rainmaker for us since we don’t see any spots picking up more than a tenth of an inch from this system. We’ll start to turn partly cloudy by Monday morning as lows drop back into the upper 20s.
Behind this wave, we’ll have a southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph in place under mostly sunny skies for Monday. This will bring everyone back to highs in the upper 40s and some spots near 50 for the afternoon.
Look at our jet setup for Tuesday. We’ll be underneath the edge of another upper-level ridge that will pass through here and across the Southern Plains and parts of the Deep South. This setup, under partly sunny skies, will send highs back near 60 for your Tuesday afternoon.
Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll see another system come at us from the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday and Thursday. You can see down below that the first part of this wave could bring in some scattered showers under mostly cloudy skies as highs drop back down close to 50 across the region.
The second part of this wave swings through on Thursday and could bring in a few extra rain or snow showers by late Thursday afternoon and early Thursday evening. Not only that, this will send highs down into the middle 40s for the day. By Friday, you can see another pair of upper-level lows working across the country down below.
The first low will clip us with partly sunny skies for Friday as highs nudge back into the upper 40s. Below, you can see what that second low will do for us by the time we hit Saturday.
Some energy from that upper-level low that will start to dig across the Rockies will head our way and bring rain chances in here by next Saturday afternoon as highs climb back into the middle 50s. As this wave kicks in for that following Sunday and as another cold front works in, we may deal with dropping temperatures and this ending as rain switching to a freezing rain/sleet/snow mix. Since this is a part of Doug’s pattern, this is something we’ll watch throughout the course of the week ahead of us. Until then, let’s enjoy a week with highs well above freezing!
Have a good night and a great Sunday!
Nick
February 28th-March 6th: Rain and snow chances back in on Sunday and cool most of the the week. This would be the Jan 14th storm that gave us 1/2″ of snow. Rain chances on Tuesday, then rain or snow on Wednesday into Thursday. Cool and dry the rest of the week.
March 7th-13th: We start the week week cool and dry. Mild temperatures for the middle of the week with rain on Thursday and Friday. Last time this system gave us very heavy rains on January 25th, I expect the same.
March 14th-20th: We start the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday. The cycle before this system produced 1″ of snow. We may be a little warm for snow being so deep into March, but I will watch it. Mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. This system gave us severe weather with some tornado warnings on January 30th, lets watch this one! Cooler and dry the rest of the week.
March 21st-27th: A mild start with slight rain chances on Monday but better rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. This was the system that started the arctic blast on the Super Bowl. I expect it a little warmer this time around but will watch it. Cool the rest of the week.
March 28th-April 3rd: Cool with rain on Sunday. Warming up a bit by mid week with rain on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. There is a slight chance some snow could be mixed in.