Latest updated blog – A few quiet days for us – Nick

Good early Thursday morning, everyone. As advertised, we had another wave come through yesterday with another round of light freezing drizzle. Fortunately, with more lift and more moisture to work with, we had some light snow flurries mixing in. Whatever you saw, any amounts we saw remained very minor as we stayed cloudy and cold throughout the day. After we saw highs near 20 on Tuesday, we only saw temperatures drop back into the upper teens at Joplin Regional before we inched back near 20 for our Wednesday high.

Looking at our weather setup, the surface setup hasn’t really changed at all since we last wrote. With a couple of fronts to our south keeping any resemblance of relatively milder air to our south along the Gulf Coast. High pressure centered over the Northern Plains remains in control and is keeping us much colder than normal.

Upstairs, the big upper-level low north of Minneapolis remains in control. This strong low is keeping the jet stream well to our south. We also note two other lows to our west. We have one upper low spinning across Arizona with another low in the Pacific that we’re watching closely.

The upper low in Arizona will stay mainly to our south. That being said, it will send some upper-level energy our way for today. That will keep us mainly cloudy, but we won’t rule out some random snow flurries for parts of the area. Everyone starts cold this morning with most areas around Joplin near 15. You’ll be a bit colder if you’re northwest of Joplin and a tad warmer to the south.

Our day will be another cloudy and cold one with areas around Joplin topping out at 21. Areas northwest of Joplin will be in the upper teens to near 20 while areas to the south will try to climb into the lower to middle 20s. Again, some random flurries will be possible. Otherwise, the flurries won’t amount to a big deal at all.

Friday stays cold, but we’ll stay dry under mostly cloudy skies. For Saturday, we’ll have an upper low pass to our southwest. It wants to pass close enough to bring some scattered snow showers for our corners of Kansas and Oklahoma. Otherwise, we could see some partly sunny skies for the rest of the day with highs in the upper teens.

The focus will then turn to the low coming out of the Pacific. For Sunday, it will start to dig into the Desert Southwest and the Southern Rockies. Ahead of it, we’ll see snow chances ramp up across New Mexico and Texas. The snow chances will also increase throughout the day here as this system kicks into gear. The cloudy skies and increasing snow chances will keep lows around 6 for Valentine’s Day and highs around 14.

For Monday, the snow wants to overtake more of the area as the upper low wants to track into the Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma. This will also keep us in the clouds with temperatures starting around -3 in the morning and topping out around 8 for the afternoon.

We had to field some questions the other day regarding some internet posts about how much snow was on the way with Sunday and Monday’s system. One thing that we know for sure at this stage in the game are that we know accumulating snow chances are forecast for these two days. Since this system is still out in the Pacific and it’s 4 days away from impacting our weather, a lot can change between now and the time the snow chances start picking up on Sunday. Once this system works closer to land and certainly when it works onshore, we’ll have a much better idea of how it will track and how much snow could be on the way. As long as you keep checking back here for the latest forecast, you’ll know what to expect.

Once that system clears out late Monday night, we’ll have a quiet Tuesday with partly sunny skies. If we get any sort of accumulating snow from Sunday and Monday’s system with the Arctic air in place, we’ll see lows drop as cold as -9 and highs only topping out around 10. You have to go back to January 2014 to that cold spell where we had lows drop to -9 across the region. After Tuesday, we’ll watch for another chance for snow with a quick wave late Tuesday night and into Wednesday as we stay quite cold.

Stickling with Doug’s pattern, we’re still set to see temperatures trend back near or above freezing by late next week while we keep an eye on some more systems wanting to head our way. Doug has a look at the rest of the month and a good look at March with his long range forecast down below. Have a great Thursday!

Nick

February 18th-20th:  Temperatures will continue to moderate as we toward the weekend. We will see slight chances for rain or snow on Thursday, but better chances by Saturday.

February 21st-27th: We’re looking at cool temperatures for the first part of the week. We’ll turn briefly colder for Thursday before we turn cool for Friday and mild for Saturday. Rain chances will be around on Sunday before another system sneaks in by the middle of the week. That will give us slight snow chances Tuesday, slight rain and snow chances Wednesday and slight snow chances for Thursday.

February 28th-March 6th: Sunday looks mild before we turn cooler on Monday and cold for Tuesday and Wednesday. A brief mild spell for Thursday and Friday before we cool back down on Saturday. A system early in the week will have rain chances for Sunday and Monday. We’ll watch for slight rain and snow chances on Wednesday and slight rain chances on Friday.

March 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with some showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up the second half of the week with rain on Thursday and Friday.

March 14th-20th:  Rain or snow chances on Sunday.  Cool on Sunday and Monday with mild temperatures the rest of the week.  Rain chances back in on Wednesday.

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